"Don't fear the headlines, pay attention to the signal."
Daily stock market crash alerts from six macro indicators. When three turn red, you get the signal.
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The 6 Macro Indicators Behind CrashSignal
Our AI agent analyzes and tracks six data series that often flash red before major market declines.
When three turn red, risks rise fast. This is the signal.
Simple to understand. Backed by data. Updated daily.
| Indicator | What it measures | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
|
VIX
Indicator
VIX (Equity Volatility)
|
What it measures
Equity market fear via implied volatility on S&P 500 options.
|
Why it matters
Rising VIX = growing equity fear and stress in risk assets.
|
|
HY OAS
Indicator
High-Yield Credit Spread
|
What it measures
Extra yield investors demand to hold junk bonds vs Treasuries.
|
Why it matters
Wider spreads = credit stress → often leads equity sell-offs.
|
|
T10Y3M
Indicator
Yield Curve (10Y − 3M)
|
What it measures
Slope between long and short Treasury yields.
|
Why it matters
Inversions have preceded most U.S. recessions and bear markets.
|
|
Term Premium
Indicator
10-Year ACM Term Premium
|
What it measures
Compensation investors demand to hold long-dated Treasuries.
|
Why it matters
Rising premium = fear in Treasuries; funding conditions tighten.
|
|
M2 Real
Indicator
Real Money Supply (M2)
|
What it measures
Money supply adjusted for inflation.
|
Why it matters
Declining real liquidity = less fuel for risk assets.
|
|
Buffett %
Indicator
Market Cap / GDP
|
What it measures
A broad valuation proxy for the total stock market vs the economy.
|
Why it matters
Extreme highs = overvaluation → markets more fragile to shocks.
|
Education, not investment advice
CrashSignal.ai is an educational tool. It does not recommend trades or provide personalized advice.
Use it to learn how macro signals behave before a crash, then decide independently what’s right for you.